16 weeks through the NFL regular season, we’re getting a glimpse of how teams will look like in the much awaited playoffs. The Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and the Baltimore Ravens may be forces not to be reckoned with their more “exciting” play but it’s the Kansas City Chiefs who currently hold the best record in the NFL at 14-1. Winning the Super Bowl three times in a row is quite an accomplishment which has never been achieved before but with the number 1 seed in the AFC just about locked up, Kansas City can see the three-peat down the road.
The Chiefs are a totally different team from what they were 4-5 years ago and it’s not necessarily a bad thing. When they had Tyreek Hill in that high flying offense, the Chiefs were among the top offenses in the league. In 2020, the year they beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, Kansas City averaged the most points a game in the regular season (ESPN). This year, they’re 13th in that category and averaging 76.9 less yards a game than that 2020 season where they averaged 415.8 total yards (ESPN). They’re also down 5.8 points a game from 29.6 in 2020 to 23.7 in 2024 (ESPN). The offensive turnaround has been extremely visible and instead of a team that used to rely on Travis Kelce and Hill, they’re very spread out now. They don’t have the deadly big plays anymore but Mahomes is the maestro of finding soft spots in coverage and picking up yardage when necessary. Andy Reid’s offense is best at 3rd down at a whopping 51% and it’s because they have such good route runners who know what has to be done (ESPN). Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are excellent veterans who are such reliable pass catchers and can make a big play when called upon. Hopkins has been a brilliant addition and he’s a player who you can trust to make difficult contested catches.
They have no receivers in the top 35 for receiving yards which just exemplifies that there is no one on this team who will command 11-12 targets a game with over 100+ yards but players who do just enough to eke out a win (ESPN). Kelce is not the same as a couple of years ago but he’s still so great in situational play and leads the team in receiving yards. Noah Gray has also stepped up because he has 430 receiving yards and five touchdowns which is better than all of his previous years with KC and he has more touchdowns this year than his past three years combined (ESPN). Xavier Worthy is also improving with each game and once he finds that consistency, he’ll be a difficult player to counter because he does so many different things on the offense including jet sweeps, screens, and deep routes. On the running back front, Isiah Pacheco coming back gives them even more options. Since he came back on 11/29 against the Las Vegas Raiders, he’s had 43 carries in four games while his counterpart Kareem Hunt has had 36 carries (ESPN). Pacheco is definitely the lead back and his carries will continue to grow as the season progresses but having Hunt can keep Pacheco fresh and he’ll be useful in the playoffs. This growing “tandem” will prove a key factor in the playoffs and they have each other too in case one of them gets hurt. Kansas City may not have the most talented offensive players in the business but it’s an offense which has tremendous depth and key situational players.
The biggest part of the Chiefs’ 14-1 season is their defense led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. This defense allows the third least points a game and third least total yards a game which makes up for the offense which can be lackluster at times (ESPN). The defense has bailed out the team on multiple occasions, most notably on a game winning blocked field goal, and Chris Jones’ group has been on fire. There was some contract dilemma in the offseason but now that the Chiefs kept him, he’s the biggest asset. PFF ranks him 3rd in the interior defender category and Jones delivers every week in pass rush. In the secondary, they lost L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans but 2023 All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie has continued to be an excellent defender. It’s a very balanced defense with quality players in all three levels of the defense as they have Jones in pass rush, Nick Bolton in the middle at linebacker, and McDuffie in the secondary. Spagnuolo has transformed this group into a top 3 defense in the league and they’re so reliant when the offense isn’t delivering.
There are many counter arguments to why Kansas City won’t go back to back to back but there won’t be any after this section. Starting off, people argue that Kansas City got lucky against Baltimore on opening night after winning by a toe out of bounds and some could even argue that the Ravens are a better team but it was a Kansas City side which wasn’t at full potential at that point. It was rookie Xavier Worthy’s first game in a Chiefs uniform and the Chiefs weren’t as deep as they are now. Rashee Rice did get hurt but the emergence of backup tight end Noah Gray complements Kelce, the addition of tremendous receiver DeAndre Hopkins has made an impact, and so has the fact that receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has returned from his long stint on injured reserve. Additionally, when Isiah Pacheco got hurt, KC picked up Kareem Hunt from the Cleveland Browns and now even the running back room is deeper along with the receiver room. To me, Baltimore is the same team as they were at the start of the season but I really believe the Chiefs have grown despite devastating injuries. They’re two teams which are so closely matched to each other and if they play each other in the playoffs, it could come down to the game winning field goal in which I trust Harrison Butker over an inconsistent Justin Tucker.
In Week 11, the Chiefs’ only loss of the season came to a powerhouse team in the Buffalo Bills but I don’t think too much of it because of 3 reasons. Buffalo having home field in this game definitely played a role but it’s an extremely good chance Kansas City will have home field secured throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs were unbeaten at home in the regular season and Arrowhead stadium is probably the toughest stadium to play in the playoffs for a visiting team. Josh Allen needed to put on a “Superman” show and Mahomes wasn’t great with two interceptions, but he certainly knows how to get the job done in the playoffs. Additionally, KC didn’t have Pacheco in this game. Pacheco is a hard runner and even though Kareem Hunt is a solid back, he’s not as explosive or elusive. Pacheco can wear down defenses and not having him forced Mahomes to throw the football more in a hostile environment. The biggest reason of all is that looking at the Bills beating the Chiefs in the regular season isn’t too much to make of. Buffalo has beaten Mahomes & Co. in the regular season in four straight years but when it came time for the playoffs, Kansas City won in both 2021 and 2022. Patrick Mahomes knows how to get it done in the playoffs and having a deep roster aids him significantly more than the Bills attempting to have a Josh Allen spectacle every game of the season. In a tie game late in the fourth quarter of an AFC Championship, I’d take Mahomes over Allen any day because I know Allen will do too much and won’t trust his team while Mahomes will hit a 50 yard touchdown to a guy like Justin Watson with a minute left.
Kansas City rarely blows teams out and they’ve played a plethora of close games this season. Their biggest margins of victory this season is 10,13, and 14 which by no means are blowouts. 11 of their 14 wins have come by one score games and while that can be concerning that they’re only beating a team like the Carolina Panthers by a game winning field goal, it’s also a testament to how good they are in close games. Their inability to crush teams is definitely something to look at but the current Chiefs are not an explosive one. They thrive in late game moments because they’ll never be able to score 50 points so effortlessly like the Detroit Lions have shown us this year. Kansas City plays gritty and it’s more defense oriented than before because it’s not as simple for them to score points as it was when they had Tyreek Hill and prime Kelce. In the playoffs, there won’t be many blowouts and the Chiefs have displayed they know how to beat teams in the win or go home moments.
The Chiefs are so well built and they excel in those late game situations which I’ve mentioned so many times before. What separates the good players from the great is that ability to be “clutch” and Kansas City has Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones in that category who often guide them to nail biter wins. They have so many veterans in the locker room and come playoff time, their voices will be heard because they have that experience of huge playoff games. Andy Reid is the best head coach in the NFL currently and with the best defensive coordinator in Spagnuolo, I believe that the Chiefs are the team to beat heading into the 2024 Playoffs.
Chiefs undoubtedly look “Invincible” at the moment, but third Super Bowl in a row might be a Herculean task.
It may not be impossible for Chiefs but Eagles, Ravens and Bills are strong contenders for the Super Bowl.
Great analysis Raghav and lot of valuable insights.