After an awesome NFL 2024 regular season, it’s time for the best part of the year. Playoffs. 14 teams remain out of 32 and to kick off Super Wild Card Weekend, it’s an AFC battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans. For the Bolts, their destiny changed with a snap of a finger when they brought in the Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh who is nothing short of wondrous. On the other side, the Texans achieved 10 wins this season for a second consecutive time but it hasn’t been as convincing this time. The quest for the Lombardi Trophy has officially begun but the first step for either of these teams is to advance into the Divisional Round.
A year after losing big offensive stars on their offense including Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams, the Chargers offense is even better this season. From averaging 20.4 points a game in 2023, they’re up to 23.6 with this new look offense (ESPN). They’ve had terrific play from rookie receiver Ladd McConkey who eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards and ranks 10th in the NFL in that category (ESPN). He was drafted with the No. 34 pick of the 2024 draft and has played a huge role in this offense with Justin Herbert at center. It’s a relatively young and new receiver room but the University of Georgia product has established himself as the top guy. Speaking of Herbert, we always knew he was an exceptionally talented quarterback but he’s reached new heights this season with Harbaugh as coach. He has a very similar build to Josh Allen and Herbert has a cannon of an arm which is similar to Allen. His arm strength ranks 3rd among current NFL QBS, according to ESPN. Even though he lost several key players, Herbert has achieved a personal best passer rating this season, yards per attempt, and he’s thrown the fewest interceptions in his career (ESPN). He’s only thrown 3 interceptions and that is a big part of the Chargers’ success because they have the 2nd least giveaways in the league (ESPN). Herbert does a tremendous job of using his legs in the right circumstances and I really believe he is a complete QB. It’s a Texans defense that has really good rushers so Herbert will need to use his legs. The Harbaugh effect has been extremely positive for Herbert and I’d undoubtedly say Herbert is a Top 5 quarterback.
Not only do the Chargers have a nice offense, they have a fantastic defense. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been excellent for LA in a unit which has allowed the least points a game in the regular season (ESPN). They’re led by safety Derwin James Jr. and linebacker Joey Bosa who play such a big role for them. James Jr. will be tested in covering wide receiver Nico Collins and if the Chargers’ secondary can clamp up Collins, I’d give them a real good chance to win. It’s already a decimated wide receiver room for the Texans with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell on injured reserve so taking away Collins would limit the air attack for Houston significantly. In addition, the Chargers need to pressure C.J. Stroud and force sacks. Stroud has been sacked the second most times in the NFL with 52 and other than Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil, it’s a pretty weak group to protect Stroud (ESPN). Stroud is vulnerable outside the pocket and that’s where a lot of his mistakes come from. The Chargers defense needs to put on a clinic to win this football and they cannot let the Texans offense get going.
It’s a good thing the Texans were in an easy division like the AFC South because it has been a very hit or miss type of season for head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team. They were 1-5 against teams with winning records at the end of the season and their flaws certainly got exposed against the elite teams of the league. In Week 17, Houston only mustered up 211 total yards and their only points came from a safety. Pretty embarrassing. They allowed 5 sacks in that game vs the Baltimore Ravens and got completely embarrassed in front of their fans on Christmas. Stroud has been subpar in his second year in the league after a stellar rookie season but Houston needs more from him in the playoffs. He has to use WR Nico Collins, tight end Dalton Schultz, and running back Joe Mixon effectively because they are the playmakers the offense has available. Mixon has been the best acquisition the Texans made this past offseason and despite missing 3 full games, Mixon ran for over 1,000 rushing yards and got a Pro Bowl nod. Since December 15th against the Miami Dolphins, Mixon has been bottled up in the run game. I believe it’s extremely important that the Texans show faith in the run game against the Chargers because Stroud is not someone who can single handedly win a game of this magnitude. Mixon is a veteran back who can be so good if he’s given a good amount of carries. In the pass game, Schultz and Collins also need to step up because they’re the two main pass catchers. In the 12 games Collins has been part of this season, he’s averaging 83.8 yards a game in those and is averaging 8.2 targets (ESPN). Stroud will look towards him often in this game and he will be a major part of their Wild Card game.
In a year where the offense has been below expectations for Houston, the defense has been terrific. They allow the 5th least total yards a game, 6th least passing yards a game, are 2nd in interceptions, and 4th in sacks (ESPN). 23 of those sacks have come from Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter who are two defensive ends with immense talent. This tandem applies pressure from both sides and it’s a nightmare for a QB to go up against two great DE’s. In the secondary, cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been a standout player for the Texans and they’ll need him to guard LA’s WR1 McConkey. It should be a great battle between them all game and a matchup which is so critical towards the outcome of the game. Houston’s defense has really stepped up with the offense being lackluster at times and I’m sure they’ll be called upon greatly in this game.
My prediction for this game is that the Chargers will win 24-23. I’m expecting this to be a close and low scoring game considering how both these teams have played all year. In the NFL most of all, success is based around a good QB with a good head coach and the Chargers have the better of both. Harbaugh and Herbert will get it done in the big moments and I trust them so much over a turnover-prone C.J. Stroud. The Texans’ offensive line is also too much of a liability and with the Chargers having the 6th most sacks, they’ll wreak havoc in front of Stroud (ESPN). Diggs and Dell being unavailable will hurt the passing attack and the only way Houston can win is if they get monster games from Collins and Mixon. It should be a close battle but I’m picking the team from Los Angeles in this one. You can watch this game on 1/11/2024 at 4:30 PM EST on CBS and Paramount+.
The Chargers and Texans start the 2024 NFL Playoffs and while one of these teams will be moving on towards the Divisional Round, one team will be going home. We are in for a nail biter from NRG Stadium this Saturday afternoon between the 4 and the 5 seed in the AFC bracket. Can Justin Herbert achieve his 1st playoff win of his young career or will C.J. Stroud and the Texans make it consecutive Divisional Round appearances?