It is a new era in the AFC, and new teams have ascended to the top of the hierarchy with two weeks left in the regular season. For the first time in over a decade, the playoffs will not feature Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, and it will be a very different playoffs from the ones we are accustomed to watching, without the Chiefs, Bengals, or Ravens. The Broncos and the Patriots lead the pack in the conference, and with their two terrifically balanced teams, they look like the top contenders on the AFC side. Meanwhile, the Steelers are nearly in the playoffs and have 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers still slinging the football at a high level. It is a competitive group of teams in the mix, and it will be splendid to watch how the AFC unfolds.
To start, the Broncos currently hold the one seed in the AFC, but just this past weekend, they suffered a crushing 34-20 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars. To me, this team feels a little fraudulent because they have had too many late-game miracles. Bo Nix and the offense have not been the most consistent at the start of games, and in the playoffs, it is not a recipe for success. Denver is a 12-3 team but they have eked out one-possession games against the Titans, Jets, Giants, Raiders (x2), Chiefs and Commanders. The teams just listed have a combined record of 22-83 and are all terrible football teams. These games should not be close, but instead, Denver has barely escaped these games with wins and not losses. They have arguably the best defense in the league, but the swings of this offense really concern me, which is why I don’t see them going to the Super Bowl.
In the second seed, the New England Patriots are also 12-3 and are led by their third overall pick from the 2024 draft, Drake “Drake Maye” Maye. Even though the Patriots have had the NFL’s third-easiest schedule, this team gives me different vibes than the Broncos. Both teams have fabulous coaches and defense, but where they differ is at the quarterback position. Maye leads the NFL in completion %, quarterback rating, and he is top four in passer rating and passing yards a game. He has been incredibly consistent throughout the year and because of this, I trust the Patriots more than the Broncos. New England does have to prove that they can beat good teams, but this team is built tougher for the playoffs, and in my eyes, one of the top candidates for the Super Bowl.
The current three seed on the AFC side is none other than the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team is so under the radar, and without all the primetime games and attention, they have quietly been winning games. Trevor Lawrence, the Jags’ quarterback, has been on a heater as of late, with his 10 combined touchdowns in the last two games. After a sluggish and wobbly beginning of the season for him, where he was up and down, Lawrence has turned it around in an incredible fashion. The Jags look like a real contender, but all that hinges on their $50 million a year quarterback. Lawrence is one of the NFL’s best when he’s on, and Jacksonville has to hope that Lawrence can keep this momentum going into the playoffs. I absolutely love their offense with their versatile running back Travis Etienne, their trio of receivers in Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington who can each play a crucial role on a given day. The Meyers trade they made before the deadline was exquisite, and ever since coming over from Las Vegas, Meyers has been one of Lawrence’s top options down the field. The Jags are rolling with the regular season coming to an end, and they can potentially go deep into the playoffs.
The fourth seed of the AFC is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have not officially clinched the playoffs but are practically there, as they can clinch the division with a win this week. They pulled off a gigantic win at Detroit last Sunday and moved to a 9-6 record. Aaron Rodgers still playing in the league is extraordinary, and him about to clinch the playoffs is even more extraordinary. Pittsburgh’s receivers have not been the most reliable, but they have used their running backs really well. Warren had a big day against the Lions with over 100 yards rushing and got the Steelers the win. The other running back, Kenneth Gainwell, gets a lot of usage in the pass game, and his role in the offense has grown as he’s extremely dependable. Pittsburgh has evolved into a stronger football team, and while I don’t think they will do any damage in the playoffs, it will be interesting to watch “unc” Aaron Rodgers balling out in January.
Next, the fifth seed is the LA Chargers, who, despite being 11-4, are second in their division due to the 12-3 Broncos. The Chargers lost their star offensive tackle, Joe Alt, to injury earlier in the season, and along with this injury and several others, QB Justin Herbert has been sacked the third most times in the league, at 49. Herbert is taking an average of close to 3.5 sacks a game, and he has taken a beating this year. The injuries to the o-line have made it tougher to run the ball, and Harbaugh’s team has had to battle. Their defense has really stepped up as they have not allowed more than 20 points since their Week 13 bye, a trend they would want to keep going into Week 17 and beyond. Herbert’s hits this season make them a shaky team to go deep into the playoffs, but with all his experience and skill players on the offense, I do believe the Chargers could do some damage in the playoffs.
In addition, the current sixth seed is the Buffalo Bills, and they also hold an 11-4 record. Buffalo, this year, has seen some of the spotlight on them move to the Patriots, and the Bills are second in the AFC East. This team is absolutely not as balanced as some of the other teams, but they do have the best running back and quarterback of the conference, in James Cook and Josh Allen. Cook has been on a tear this season, as he is averaging an astounding 5.3 yards a carry and leads the league in rushing yards. He and Allen each have 12 rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo’s ability to run the ball so efficiently will be much needed in the playoffs. They do not have a strong receiving core and a shutdown defense, which does not give me much confidence that they will win the Super Bowl, but they do have Josh Allen. Allen has struggled in the playoffs in years past against opponents like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, so a bracket without them could be beneficial to the Bills. Allen and the run game need to come up huge for the Bills, and they will have to win some tough road games in the playoffs this year.
Lastly, the Texans are the seventh seed as of now, but have not officially clinched yet. Houston has a notoriously good defense, and their defense always delivers when the offense is not going. They have a fantastic pass rush due to Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who both have over 11 sacks each. This Texans defense allows the fewest yards per game and the fewest points per game, of which are factors in their unbelievable defense. The Texans’ defense is the reason for their 10-5 record, and in tight playoff games, I do not trust any defense more than Houston’s to make the all-important stop. Stroud and the offense have been better this season than last, but they need to make more big plays and help out the defense. Similar to the Broncos or the Bears, the Texans’ offense sometimes lacks consistency, and with the playoffs approaching, Houston needs to figure it out on the offensive side. This is an amazing football team, and while they have the NFL’s best defense, I think every other quarterback in the playoff picture right now is better than Stroud. This league comes down to quarterback play, and the Texans offense’ is not good enough in critical moments right now.
It is a loaded bracket in the AFC, and it is anyone’s to take. Without players like Mahomes and Jackson in the playoffs, we will see new faces, and it will be a fantastic slate of games from the Wild Card Round to the Conference Championship. Will Allen get the Super Bowl ring he has been longing for? Are the Patriots back to their former selves and the Super Bowl favorites? Which team will make it to San Francisco for the Super Bowl?